RAIN Risk Markets — $300M TVL Live Simulator

Risk MarketsLIVE PROTOCOL SIMULATOR

↓ WHITEPAPER (PDF)

VAULT TVL $300,000,000 · BASE SPREAD 1.25% · ARBITRUM

LAUNCH BUDGET $

→ STARTING TRADERS

BASE SPREAD %

AVG BRAND MARKUP %

MARKETING REINVEST

yr1 50% · yr2 40% · yr3 30% · yr4+ 20%

SIMULATION SPEED

BLOCK 0 · TRADING DAYS

0.00d

volume rate: —

TOTAL VOLUME TRADED

0 positions settled

VAULT PnL (REALIZED)

expectation: $0 · APY-eq: —

TOTAL RAIN BURNED

volume fee 0.15% + 15% perf fee above HWM

ACTIVE TRANCHE RETURN · ANN.

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cumulative annualized · active tranche

ACTIVE TRANCHE · WORKING

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absorbs PnL · LP capital at work

ANCHOR RESERVE · STANDBY

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backstops tails · earns 0.05% of volume

LTV : CAC

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protocol value per trader lifetime vs \$700 acquisition

TRADER LTV

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industry standard · vs model-computed

ACTIVE TRADERS · LIVE

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churn vs marketing-funded growth

MARKETING BUDGET SPENT

reinvested brand revenue → acquisition & bonuses

BRANDS & AFFILIATES

NET: base + markup − royalty − marketing reinvested

TRADER REBATES ACCRUED

volume-tiered, claimable on-chain

MAX DRAWDOWN (VAULT)

0.00% of TVL · breaker at 5σ

MAX RUN-UP (VAULT)

best trough-to-peak climb · luck cuts both ways

DEEPEST LOSS (BUSINESS)

vault + fees − marketing, at its lowest

TRADER DEPOSITS (CUM.)

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DEPOSITS → REVENUE

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vault + burn + rebates + brands, as % of deposits

BIGGEST SINGLE PAYOUT

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cap: $3,000,000 (1% TVL)

VAULT CUMULATIVE PnL purple line = expectation · shaded = ±1σ luck band

LAUNCH ROI initial budget's own cohort only — its share of vault PnL + burn

SETTLEMENT FEED whale positions

VALUE FLOW WATERFALL cumulative

LAYER	RATE	ACCRUED
Protocol fee → RAIN burn	0.15% notional	$0
Performance fee → RAIN burn	10% of profit > HWM	$0
Markup royalty → RAIN burn	10% of brand markup	$0
Recovery gate → vault	distributions while under water	$0
Trader rebates	~0.17% blended	$0
Base distribution (brands/affiliates)	0.25% notional	$0
Brand markup net (60% of flow, after royalty)	user-set	$0
Risk Vault (residual)	spread − fees	$0

LIVE POSITION LIMITS $300M TVL

PRODUCT	MAX STAKE
Coin Flip / Even-money	$600,000
Blackjack · Decision markets (per hand)	$520,000
Dice / Crash 5×	$270,000
Dice / Crash 10×	$200,000
Roulette single number	$82,000
Crash 100×	$30,000

TRADER SEGMENT INDEX who counts as what · industry-standard calibration

SEGMENT	SHARE	AVG POSITION	VOLUME / MO	DEPOSITS / MO	PROFILE
Casual	78%	$12	~$1,200	~$36	Recreational — entertainment budget, plays occasionally
Regular	20%	$120	~$8,000	~$240	Hobbyist — steady weekly activity, disposable income
VIP	~2%	~$750	~$120,000	~$2,200	High-value regular — the top-2% tier that drives ~half of deposits industry-wide
Whale	~0.1%	~$8,000	~$2M	~$37,000	True high roller — 1 in 1,000; bankroll parked, losses topped up
Mega-whale	1 per 5,000	~$20,000 (up to caps)	~$150M	~$2.8M	Top-tier global VIP — a handful exist worldwide; drawn by the deepest limits

Calibrated to iGaming industry benchmarks: top ~2% of players contribute ~half of deposits; true whales are ~0.1% (1 in 1,000). Avg position ≈ 1–2% of parked bankroll — a $750-avg-bet VIP runs a $40–75K bankroll built over time; monthly top-ups only cover losses. Recreational hold ~55% (frequent small redeposits, winnings withdrawn); VIP/whale hold ~90%. $1 deposited cycles 30–60× through the book.

RAIN RISK MARKETS · PROTOCOL EXTENSION SIMULATOR · ILLUSTRATIVE STATISTICS ONLY · RAIN.ONE ·